civilizational-cycles

Files related to theories of civilizational rise and fall.

• Civilizational Cycles
• The Limits of Utopia
• Words of Wisdom
• Rudyard Lynch (Whatifalthist)
• The SAVE Act and the Suffrage Question
• Press Freedom and Governance
• The End of the End of History (Yarvin x Starkey)
• Business Cycles
• History Repeats — The Small-Pain-Tolerance Variable — the pain-avoidance ratchet as the mechanism under Khaldun’s asabiyyah decay and Glubb’s “loss of the hardy virtues”; prescription = recover small-pain-bearing cultural technology
• Cyclical Historians — Ibn Khaldun, Spengler, Toynbee, Strauss & Howe, Glubb — those who see civilizations following predictable patterns of rise and fall.
• Economic Theorists — Hayek, Sowell, Schumpeter, Kondratiev — those whose work on markets, knowledge, and incentives illuminates why the cycle mechanisms operate.
• Lyn Alden on Long-Term Trade Deficit Unsustainability — A Vault Framework Engagement — Lyn Alden’s trade deficit analysis makes a careful, multi-level argument for the unsustainability of long-term trade deficits — operat…
• Structural-Institutional Analysts — Turchin, Tainter, Olson, Dalio — those who identify specific mechanisms (complexity, institutions, elites, debt) that cause civilizational decay.
• The Fiscal Pressure Must Leak Somehow — All of the Above — Sketch-tier musing.